China’s Global Leadership Ambitions Run Through India

This week, Chinese President Xi Jinping welcomed Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit in Tianjin. Putin remained to attend Beijing’s military parade marking the end of World War II in Asia, underscoring the symbolism of the gathering. Xi used the event’s pageantry to spotlight Beijing’s ambition to position itself as the guardian of the global order, directly challenging the United States’ claim to leadership.

While China, India, and Russia diverge sharply in politics, history, and national interests, their convergence at the SCO reveals a shared desire to create space for multipolarity. For global CEOs, CFOs, and investors, the question is no longer whether Beijing seeks global leadership, but whether this trio of complementary powers can act cohesively enough to matter.

Complementary Strengths in an Uneasy Troika

At first glance, China, India, and Russia form an unlikely alignment. India remains wary of Beijing, given territorial disputes and economic rivalry. Russia, deeply sanctioned after Ukraine, depends on China economically while competing with it in Central Asia. Yet in global terms, their strengths look more complementary than competitive:

• China brings scale in technology, capital, and industrial infrastructure.
• India provides labor supply, a vast consumer market, and democratic legitimacy.
• Russia wields traditional hard power through its military capabilities and energy reserves.

Together, they present a symbolic counterweight to U.S. alliances. Their joint presence at the SCO highlights that cooperation—even if pragmatic and limited—can shift narratives about the balance of power.

Why India Matters

China’s bid for leadership cannot succeed without India. As the world’s most populous country and fastest-growing major economy, India has the potential to tilt the balance in Asia. Its democratic credentials and growing tech sector lend it credibility that China lacks.

But India remains cautious. While Modi appeared cordial at the SCO, New Delhi continues to deepen ties with the U.S. through the Quad alliance, joint military exercises, and growing defense trade. India is also pursuing economic decoupling from China in sensitive industries like telecommunications and semiconductors.

For China, persuading India to engage—even symbolically—in multipolar platforms like the SCO provides a veneer of inclusivity that Beijing’s own system cannot project. For India, participation helps maintain strategic autonomy and bargaining power with both East and West.

Russia’s Role: Energy and Hard Power

Russia’s role in this triad is narrower but not negligible. Sanctioned and isolated from Western markets, Moscow has pivoted decisively toward Beijing. Energy exports, discounted oil, and joint defense projects keep Russia relevant to the bloc. At the SCO, Putin’s presence alongside Xi and Modi reinforced Russia’s continued symbolic clout as a military power.

For India, Russian partnerships remain vital in defense procurement, even as diversification accelerates. For China, Russia’s military weight and energy exports complement Beijing’s economic and technological muscle.

The SCO: A Coalition of Contradictions

Founded in 2001 by China, Russia, and three Central Asian states, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization has expanded to include India, Pakistan, and Iran, with others as observers. The bloc is unusual: it contains democracies and authoritarian states, strategic rivals and allies, and economies with little direct complementarity.

It is not a military alliance like NATO, nor an economic bloc like the EU. Instead, the SCO is best viewed as a political stage—a forum where alternative visions of global order are rehearsed and displayed. The Tianjin summit’s significance lay less in formal agreements and more in the optics of Xi, Modi, and Putin standing together.

Risks and Limits

Despite the optics, deep frictions remain.

1. India–China Rivalry: Border clashes in Ladakh and trade tensions constrain trust.
2. Russia’s Dependency: Moscow’s growing subordination to Beijing reduces its ability to act independently.
3. Divergent Agendas: India prizes strategic autonomy, Russia seeks survival, and China wants leadership—hardly a recipe for alignment.
4. Domestic Politics: Modi must navigate public opinion wary of Chinese dominance, while Putin faces war fatigue and Xi balances slowing growth at home.

For executives, the SCO should not be mistaken for a cohesive bloc. It is a symbolic counterweight, not a strategic alliance.

Outlook: Multipolar Messaging

Even if pragmatic cooperation is limited, the SCO allows China to amplify a narrative: that the world is moving beyond U.S.-led unipolarity. In turbulent times, symbolism matters. The troika of Xi, Modi, and Putin on a shared stage signals to the Global South that alternatives exist, however fragile.

For businesses, this is consequential. Multinationals must prepare for a fragmented global order where regional blocs, informal partnerships, and competing standards shape trade, finance, and technology. The SCO may not rival NATO or the EU in coherence, but its gatherings remind the world that U.S. dominance is not uncontested.

Executive Takeaway

For CEOs, CFOs, and investors, three insights stand out from the SCO summit:

• China needs India to legitimize its leadership bid. India will engage selectively to maximize leverage.
• Russia’s role is symbolic but still relevant, providing energy and military ballast.
• The SCO’s significance lies in optics, not cohesion—but those optics influence global narratives and investor sentiment.

China’s road to global leadership indeed runs through India. Whether New Delhi walks alongside Beijing is uncertain. What is certain is that the world’s power map is tilting toward multipolarity, and businesses that fail to adapt to this shifting order risk being left behind.

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